Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
