A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
